Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.596616 1.671290 1.749305 1.837207 1.933882 2.037419 2.157296
2026-01-18 1.511161 1.610819 1.718692 1.845070 1.990320 2.153618 2.353430
2026-01-25 1.424298 1.536734 1.661393 1.811469 1.989525 2.197128 2.462397
2026-02-01 1.368013 1.490966 1.630064 1.801496 2.010686 2.262817 2.598467
2026-02-08 1.319265 1.449717 1.599774 1.788389 2.024169 2.316798 2.721230
2026-02-15 1.276165 1.412066 1.570602 1.773275 2.032041 2.361753 2.833523
2026-02-22 1.248474 1.390822 1.559203 1.778149 2.063806 2.437935 2.993703
2026-03-01 1.203798 1.346882 1.517657 1.742187 2.039354 2.435857 3.040379
2026-03-08 1.168696 1.313137 1.487044 1.718204 2.028552 2.450522 3.111471
2026-03-15 1.140767 1.287081 1.464769 1.703540 2.028762 2.479585 3.206018
2026-03-22 1.132128 1.284454 1.471608 1.726861 2.081536 2.586778 3.435113
2026-03-29 1.128071 1.287183 1.485040 1.759118 2.148141 2.719058 3.723450
2026-04-05 1.107729 1.269108 1.471514 1.755061 2.163851 2.777319 3.896376
2026-04-12 1.091482 1.255663 1.463397 1.757800 2.189223 2.852252 4.110905
2026-04-19 1.062229 1.224566 1.430885 1.725023 2.159714 2.836171 4.148220
2026-04-26 1.043378 1.206438 1.415008 1.714917 2.163627 2.874915 4.300047
2026-05-03 1.024693 1.187994 1.398071 1.702487 2.163064 2.905699 4.440076
2026-05-10 1.006396 1.169575 1.380577 1.688480 2.159119 2.930042 4.570048
2026-05-17 0.995788 1.160955 1.376010 1.692806 2.183846 3.005976 4.829381
2026-05-24 0.972346 1.134786 1.346758 1.659966 2.147650 2.970055 4.819841
2026-05-31 0.953710 1.114662 1.325360 1.638047 2.128110 2.963191 4.880675
2026-06-07 0.938815 1.099234 1.310059 1.624636 2.121704 2.979954 5.003732
2026-06-14 0.936519 1.100591 1.317952 1.645933 2.173075 3.109018 5.448667